Phones are expensive and the price you pay depends heavily on when you buy. The same phone can cost significantly less just by timing your purchase around release cycles and sales events. This guide covers the predictable patterns in phone pricing so you can decide whether to buy now or wait.
The annual release cycle
Major phone manufacturers release new flagship phones on a predictable schedule:
Apple iPhone: New models announced in September, available for purchase in late September or early October every year. This has been consistent since 2012
Samsung Galaxy S series: Announced in January or February, available shortly after. The Galaxy Z Fold and Z Flip (foldables) launch in July
Google Pixel: Announced in October, available in October or November. The budget Pixel A series launches in May or June
When a new model launches, two things happen that benefit buyers: the new phone is available at launch pricing with promotional trade-in offers, and the previous generation drops in price immediately.
Buy last year's model at launch
The single most effective strategy for saving money on a phone is buying the previous generation when the new one launches:
When the iPhone 17 launches in September, the iPhone 16 drops in price. When the Galaxy S26 launches in February, the Galaxy S25 gets discounted
Year-over-year improvements in phones have slowed significantly. The camera, processor, and screen differences between consecutive generations are often incremental. A one-year-old flagship performs nearly identically to the newest model for everyday use
The price drop on the previous generation is typically 15 to 30 percent, sometimes more for carriers and retailers trying to clear inventory
Carriers often offer the steepest discounts on previous-generation phones because they want to move remaining stock before the new model dominates shelf space
Best sales events for phone purchases
Black Friday and Cyber Monday (late November)
Consistently the best time of year to buy a phone:
Carriers and retailers compete aggressively with trade-in offers, gift cards, and direct discounts
Unlocked phones from manufacturers and retailers see meaningful discounts — typically $50 to $200 off flagship models
The timing works well because new iPhones and Pixels have been out for about two months, so initial stock shortages have cleared
Carrier deals often require a new line or specific plan, so read the fine print. The advertised price may require commitments that change the actual cost
Holiday season (December)
Prices remain competitive through December, though the deepest discounts are usually on Black Friday. Holiday sales are a good backup if you missed the November deals.
Amazon Prime Day (July)
Amazon Prime Day offers discounts on unlocked phones, especially Samsung and Google Pixel models. Apple discounts on Prime Day are smaller but sometimes include gift card bundles. Other retailers (Best Buy, Target, Walmart) run competing sales during the same period.
Carrier promotional periods
Carriers run their own promotional cycles independent of retail sales events:
Back-to-school promotions (August to September) often include buy-one-get-one deals on family plans
New phone launch promotions (coinciding with release dates) include aggressive trade-in values — carriers sometimes offer more for your old phone than it is worth on the open market because the trade-in subsidy is built into the plan cost
End-of-quarter promotions (March, June, September, December) appear as carriers push to meet sales targets
When to avoid buying
One to two months before a new model launches: If you know a new iPhone is coming in September, buying the current model in August means you pay full price for a phone that will be discounted within weeks. Either buy it earlier (to get more use from it before the price drops) or wait for the new launch
January for iPhones: January is the worst time to buy an iPhone. The holiday deals are over, the current model is still at its post-holiday price, and you are only 8 months from the next generation
Right after Samsung Galaxy S launch for Galaxy Z series: Samsung just launched new phones and promotional budgets shifted to the S series. Wait until July when the Z series launches with its own promotions
Carrier deals vs buying unlocked
Carrier deals (AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon): Often advertise the lowest upfront price or free phones with trade-in. The catch: these deals typically require monthly bill credits spread over 24 to 36 months. If you leave the carrier or pay off the phone early, you lose the remaining credits. The total cost over the contract period may be higher than buying unlocked due to plan requirements. Always calculate the total cost including the required plan
Buying unlocked: Higher upfront cost but no carrier commitment. You can switch carriers freely and are not locked into specific plans. Unlocked phones retain resale value better because they work on any carrier. Over the lifetime of the phone, buying unlocked and choosing your own plan is often cheaper
Manufacturer stores: Apple, Samsung, and Google sell directly with their own trade-in programs and financing options. Trade-in values from manufacturers are competitive with carriers and do not require carrier commitments
How long should you keep your current phone
The upgrade cycle has lengthened as phones have gotten better and more expensive:
Software support: iPhones receive iOS updates for 5 to 6 years after launch. Google Pixel phones get 7 years of updates. Samsung flagships get 7 years of updates. Your phone is functionally current as long as it receives security updates
Battery degradation: After 2 to 3 years of daily use, most phone batteries retain 80 to 85 percent of their original capacity. If battery life is your main frustration, a battery replacement is far cheaper than a new phone and restores most of the original performance
Performance: Modern phone processors are fast enough that a 3 to 4 year old flagship still handles daily tasks smoothly. You notice aging more in camera quality (newer computational photography is meaningfully better) than in app performance
The practical answer: Most people get good value from keeping a flagship phone for 3 to 4 years. Budget phones may need replacement sooner (2 to 3 years) due to shorter software support and lower initial performance. Keeping a phone longer than 4 to 5 years is possible but you will notice the camera and battery limitations
Trade-in tips
Check trade-in values from multiple sources before committing — Apple, Samsung, carrier stores, and third-party buyback sites often offer different amounts for the same phone
Trade-in values drop steeply after the first year and again when a newer model launches. Trade in your old phone within a month of buying the replacement while the value is highest
Phones with cracked screens, water damage, or non-functional features receive significantly lower trade-in values. Repair before trading in is sometimes worth it if the repair cost is less than the trade-in value difference
Back up your phone and sign out of all accounts (iCloud, Google, Samsung) before trading in. Factory reset the phone after signing out
Need advice on your next phone?
If you are trying to decide between repairing your current phone or buying a new one, Marion Phone Repair can assess your current phone condition, estimate repair costs for any issues, and help you make an informed decision about whether repair or replacement makes more sense for your situation.